Topic
Inflation & central banks
Prices, policy rates and the decisions of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and others.
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- 24 Oct 2026Oil hits a six-month high as the Strait of Hormuz stays blockedBrent settled at $116.72, a third weekly gain and up about 76% on a year ago, as fears of a wider Middle East conflict grow.Global · External shock → Link 1 · Cause
- 24 Oct 2026Japan’s oil bill pushes its trade balance into deficit for a fifth monthThe April–September deficit reached ¥2.81tn ($17.8bn). Imports rose 20%, and the yen is near 157 to the dollar.Japan · External shock → trade & yen · Effect
- 24 Oct 2026The Fed is expected to hold rates on 28 October, despite oilFutures put the chance of a hike at about 5%, down from 37% at the end of September, as a tech sell-off and the oil shock cloud the outlook.United States · Link 3 · Expected rates · In the chain
- 24 Oct 2026Investors rush into government bonds after an AI-led tech sell-offThe US 10-year yield had its biggest one-day fall in over two years on 22 October. German, French and UK yields also dropped.United States · Europe · Euro area · United Kingdom · Link 4 · Yields · In the chain
- 24 Oct 2026UK inflation jumps to 3.5%, and the rise is spreadingUp from 3.1% in August and above forecasts. Core inflation also rose, a sign the pressure is spreading beyond fuel.Europe · United Kingdom · Link 1 · Inflation · Cause
- 24 Oct 2026Markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates on 5 NovemberInvestors expect a 25 bp rise to 4.00%. Three of nine policymakers already voted for one in September.Europe · United Kingdom · Link 3 · Expected rates · In the chain
- 24 Oct 2026UK borrowing overshoots ahead of the 28 October BudgetBorrowing from April to September was £97.8bn, £6bn above forecast. The 10-year gilt sits near 5.4%.Europe · United Kingdom · Government finances → Link 4 · Cause
- 24 Oct 2026France’s borrowing premium hits its highest since the euro debt crisisThe 10-year spread over Germany reached about 147 bp on 5 October. Political deadlock and a 5.4% deficit have unsettled investors.Europe · France · Politics → Link 4 · Cause
- 24 Oct 2026US 10-year yield reaches its highest since 2002The 10-year reached about 5.3% in early October, up a full point since February, while the Fed has raised rates by just 0.25 points.United States · Link 4 · Yields · In the chain
- 24 Oct 2026UK fixed mortgage rates climb towards 6%The average two-year fix rose to 5.97% from 5.68% a month earlier, though Bank Rate hasn’t moved since December.Europe · United Kingdom · Link 5 · Real economy · Effect
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