Where the world economy stands
The key indicators behind the news, updated every day from official sources. Each section says what the numbers mean today and links to the mechanism that explains them.
Inflation
Inflation is above 2%, the usual central bank target, in the US, the euro area, the UK and Singapore, and below it in Japan and China. In the US, the euro area and the UK, headline inflation is well above core inflation, which leaves out energy and food: energy is doing much of the work.
| Economy | Headline | Core | Vs target | 2-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United StatesBLS (via FRED) | 3.7% | 2.6% | +1.7 | |
| Euro areaEurostat (via ECB) | 3.8% | 2.5% | +1.8 | |
| United KingdomONS | 3.5% | 2.8% | +1.5 | |
| JapanStatistics Bureau of Japan | 1.9% | 1.7% | −0.1 | |
| ChinaNational Bureau of Statistics of China | 0.9% | 1.0% | −1.1 | |
| SingaporeSingapore Department of Statistics | 2.3% | 2.2% | +0.3 |
Policy interest rates
Real policy rates, the interest rate minus inflation, are negative in the euro area and Japan: borrowing is cheap once rising prices are counted, so policy is still loose in real terms. They are positive in the US, the UK and China.
| Economy | Policy rate | Real rate | 1-year change | 2-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United StatesFed funds, target midpoint | 3.88% | +0.17% | 0 pts | |
| Euro areaECB deposit rate | 2.50% | −1.30% | +0.50 pts | |
| United KingdomBank Rate | 3.75% | +0.25% | −0.25 pts | |
| JapanBoJ policy rate | 1.25% | −0.65% | +0.75 pts | |
| China7-day reverse repo | 1.40% | +0.50% | 0 pts |
10-year government bond yields
The US 10-year yield is 4.96%, 85 basis points higher than a year ago.
| Economy | 10-year yield | Change | Change | 2-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States10-year Treasury | 4.96% | −33 bp | +85 bp | |
| Germany10-year Bund | 3.43% | −4 bp | +81 bp | |
| France10-year OAT | 4.85% | +37 bp | +141 bp | |
| United Kingdom10-year gilt | 5.40% | +16 bp | +83 bp | |
| Japan10-year JGB | 2.96% | −9 bp | +130 bp | |
| China10-year CGB | 1.65% | −3 bp | – | – |
Sovereign spreads
France pays 142 basis points more than Germany to borrow for ten years, against 82 a year ago. Both share the ECB’s interest rate, so the gap measures the extra risk investors see in lending to France.
| Spread | Latest | Change | 2-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| France over Germany10-year spread | 142 bp | +60 bp |
Oil
Brent crude is $115.22 a barrel, 76% higher than a year ago. Oil feeds into inflation within weeks, through fuel and transport costs.
| Benchmark | Latest | Change | Change | 2-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude$ per barrel | $115.22 | −1% | +76% |
Exchange rates
One US dollar buys 158.0 yen. That is more than a year ago (154.1), so the yen is weaker. A weaker currency makes imports, including oil, more expensive.
| Rate | Latest | Change | 2-year trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar in yenYen per US dollar | 158.0 | +2.6% | |
| Euro in US dollarsUS dollars per euro | 1.123 | −2.7% |
Debt, deficits and what they cost
Japan carries the heaviest debt of the countries we follow, at about 199% of GDP. 7 of the 10 run budget deficits above 3% of GDP, the EU’s limit. Brazil pays the most in interest, about 7.8% of GDP: what a debt costs depends on interest rates as much as on its size.
| Country | Debt% of GDP | Budget balance% of GDP | Interest cost% of GDP | Current account% of GDP | S&P rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 199% | −1.4% | 0.3% | +4.6% | A+ |
| Singapore | 166% | +3.7% | – | +16.7% | AAA |
| Italy | 138% | −2.9% | 3.9% | +0.7% | BBB+ |
| United States | 127% | −8.5% | 3.6% | −3.9% | AA+ |
| France | 118% | −5.4% | 2.5% | −0.7% | A+ |
| China | 104% | −8.0% | 1.1% | +4.0% | A+ |
| United Kingdom | 102% | −3.8% | 2.6% | −3.3% | AA |
| Brazil | 97% | −8.1% | 7.8% | −2.4% | BB |
| India | 83% | −7.5% | 5.3% | −1.5% | BBB |
| Germany | 65% | −4.3% | 0.9% | +4.5% | AAA |
This year’s figures are IMF estimates. Select a country for its full profile.
All country profiles →Sources and notes
- Sources: BLS (via FRED), Bank of England, Bank of Japan, ChinaBond, ECB, EIA (via FRED), Eurostat (via ECB), Federal Reserve (via FRED), National Bureau of Statistics of China, OECD (via FRED), ONS, People’s Bank of China, Singapore Department of Statistics, Statistics Bureau of Japan, US Treasury (via FRED).
- Inflation is the change in consumer prices over 12 months. Core inflation leaves out energy and food; definitions differ by country.
- Monthly series show the latest month published. Daily series (US 10-year, policy rates, oil and currencies) show the latest close; their trend lines use month-end values.
- Europe’s, the UK’s and Japan’s 10-year yields are monthly averages, so they lag the daily market by a few weeks.
- “Older” marks a figure that hasn’t been updated recently, usually because the next release isn’t out yet.