China
The world’s largest exporter. The IMF’s figures cover central and official local government; borrowing by local government financing vehicles comes on top.
How much it owes, and what it costs
Government debt in China is about 104% of GDP this year, on IMF estimates, 45 points higher than in 2019. The government is running a deficit of 8.0% of GDP: even before paying 1.1% of GDP in interest, it spends more than it collects. The IMF expects debt to rise to about 122% by 2031.
| Measure | 2019 | 2025 | 2026IMF estimate | 2031IMF forecast | 2007–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government debt% of GDP, gross | 59.9% | 98.6% | 104.4% | 122.1% | |
| Budget balance% of GDP, minus = deficit | −6.0% | −7.9% | −8.0% | −8.0% | |
| Primary balancebudget before interest | −5.2% | −6.9% | −6.9% | −6.5% | |
| Interest cost% of GDP, net | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
Long-term foreign-currency ratings, checked 25 October 2026. AAA is the highest grade; below BBB− is “high yield”.
What it earns and spends abroad
China runs a current account surplus of 4.0% of GDP (about $863bn): it earns more from the rest of the world than it spends there, and lends the difference abroad.
| Measure | 2019 | 2025 | 2026IMF estimate | 2007–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account% of GDP | +0.6% | +3.7% | +4.0% | |
| Current accountUS$ billions | +90 | +724 | +863 |
Growth, prices and borrowing costs
The IMF expects the economy to grow 4.5% this year in real terms, with inflation averaging 1.0%. Its 10-year borrowing cost, 1.65%, is below the economy’s nominal growth of roughly 5.5% (growth plus inflation). Over time, that helps keep debt stable relative to GDP.
Oct 2026
Oct 2026
Sep 2026
| Measure | 2025 | 2026IMF estimate | 2027IMF forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growthreal GDP, % | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Inflationaverage for the year, % | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Unemployment% of workforce | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
The mechanics behind it
Terms on this page
Other country profiles
Sources and notes
- Government finances, current account, growth, inflation and unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, via the IMF DataMapper (checked 2026-10-24). The IMF publishes them in April and October.
- 2026 figures are IMF estimates, and later years are IMF forecasts. Earlier years are actual data, sometimes revised.
- Debt is general government gross debt: central, regional and local government and social security. Interest cost is net interest, worked out as the primary balance minus the overall balance.
- Credit ratings: long-term foreign-currency ratings from S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch, checked on the date shown. Agencies can change them at any time.
- Policy rates, 10-year yields, monthly inflation and exchange rates: as on The numbers page.