United States
The world’s largest economy and issuer of its main reserve currency. That lets it borrow heavily in its own currency, but its deficits are large even in good years.
How much it owes, and what it costs
Government debt in the US is about 127% of GDP this year, on IMF estimates, 18 points higher than in 2019. The government is running a deficit of 8.5% of GDP: even before paying 3.6% of GDP in interest, it spends more than it collects. The IMF expects debt to rise to about 145% by 2031.
| Measure | 2019 | 2025 | 2026IMF estimate | 2031IMF forecast | 2007–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government debt% of GDP, gross | 108.8% | 124.4% | 126.8% | 145.0% | |
| Budget balance% of GDP, minus = deficit | −5.8% | −7.1% | −8.5% | −8.4% | |
| Primary balancebudget before interest | −3.5% | −3.9% | −4.9% | −3.4% | |
| Interest cost% of GDP, net | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% |
Long-term foreign-currency ratings, checked 25 October 2026. AAA is the highest grade; below BBB− is “high yield”.
What it earns and spends abroad
The US runs a current account deficit of 3.9% of GDP (about $1,263bn): it spends more abroad than it earns, and relies on foreign investors to fund the gap.
| Measure | 2019 | 2025 | 2026IMF estimate | 2007–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account% of GDP | −1.9% | −3.8% | −3.9% | |
| Current accountUS$ billions | −404 | −1,177 | −1,263 |
Growth, prices and borrowing costs
The IMF expects the economy to grow 2.3% this year in real terms, with inflation averaging 3.6%. Its 10-year borrowing cost, 4.96%, is below the economy’s nominal growth of roughly 5.9% (growth plus inflation). Over time, that helps keep debt stable relative to GDP.
24 Oct 2026
22 Oct 2026
Sep 2026
| Measure | 2025 | 2026IMF estimate | 2027IMF forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growthreal GDP, % | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Inflationaverage for the year, % | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| Unemployment% of workforce | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
United States in the news
Newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026The Fed is expected to hold rates on 28 October, despite oilFutures put the chance of a hike at about 5%, down from 37% at the end of September, as a tech sell-off and the oil shock cloud the outlook.United States · Link 3 · Expected rates · In the chain
- 24 Oct 2026Dow falls 650 points as oil costs hit airlinesThe Dow lost 1.2% on 23 October. Airline shares fell as fuel costs rose, and worries about AI spending added to the selling.United States · Link 5 · Real economy · Effect
- 24 Oct 2026Investors rush into government bonds after an AI-led tech sell-offThe US 10-year yield had its biggest one-day fall in over two years on 22 October. German, French and UK yields also dropped.United States · Europe · Euro area · United Kingdom · Link 4 · Yields · In the chain
- 24 Oct 2026US 10-year yield reaches its highest since 2002The 10-year reached about 5.3% in early October, up a full point since February, while the Fed has raised rates by just 0.25 points.United States · Link 4 · Yields · In the chain
The mechanics behind it
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Sources and notes
- Government finances, current account, growth, inflation and unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, via the IMF DataMapper (checked 2026-10-24). The IMF publishes them in April and October.
- 2026 figures are IMF estimates, and later years are IMF forecasts. Earlier years are actual data, sometimes revised.
- Debt is general government gross debt: central, regional and local government and social security. Interest cost is net interest, worked out as the primary balance minus the overall balance.
- Credit ratings: long-term foreign-currency ratings from S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch, checked on the date shown. Agencies can change them at any time.
- Policy rates, 10-year yields, monthly inflation and exchange rates: as on The numbers page.