Scenarios
If this happens, what follows?
Each scenario takes one "what if" from today's news and follows it through the economy, link by link, using the mechanisms on this site and what happened in past episodes. They explain cause and effect; they are not forecasts of what will happen.
ScenarioIf the Fed raises rates in December: what followsMarkets give a Fed rate rise on 8–9 December a high chance. What a quarter-point rise would change, who would feel it and how fast, why most of the effect has already happened, and what a hold would mean instead. A cause-and-effect guide, not a forecast.ScenarioIf France's borrowing premium keeps widening: what followsInvestors demand far more to lend to France than to Germany than they did a year ago. If that gap keeps growing, the effects run from the French budget to banks, borrowers, the rest of the euro area and the ECB. A cause-and-effect guide, not a forecast.ScenarioIf oil stays above $100: what followsBrent has spent much of 2026 above $100 a barrel. If it stays there, the effects travel in a known order: fuel within weeks, inflation within months, then interest rates, growth and currencies. A cause-and-effect guide, not a forecast.