Tuesday's US inflation report will have no annual inflation rate. Here's why
On 10 November the US publishes October inflation, the most important data point before the Fed's December meeting. But it will not include the usual headline number, the 12-month rate. The reason dates back a year, to a government shutdown that stopped price collection in October 2025.
Result, 10 November: consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core prices 0.3%, both above forecasts. See our story on the result.
What happened
The US government shutdown in autumn 2025 stopped the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting prices for October 2025, and it said it was "unable to retroactively collect these data". A year later, that gap matters. When the BLS publishes October 2026 consumer prices on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30am New York time, it "will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available", as quoted by StockTitan. That includes overall inflation, core inflation, food, energy and rent.
It will publish the monthly change for overall and core prices, and 12-month changes for a few items it does have data for, such as petrol, new cars and used cars.
How an annual inflation rate is calculated
Statisticians track the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services and turn them into an index. The annual inflation rate compares this month's index with the index for the same month a year earlier. If October 2025 has no index, there is nothing to compare October 2026 with. A monthly change, by contrast, only needs September and October 2026, which both exist.
Some forecasters estimate an annual figure by filling the gap with a stand-in value, but those are estimates, not official numbers. The cleanest signal on Tuesday will be the monthly change, which can be roughly annualised by multiplying by 12: 0.3% a month is close to 3.6% a year.
Why it matters for the Fed
The last official annual rate was 3.7% in September, after a 0.6% monthly rise, the largest since April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 0.3% rise in October overall and 0.2% for core prices, which would be the smallest core rise in three months. RBC Economics expects 0.3% for both; the Cleveland Fed's nowcast is slightly lower. After Friday's strong jobs report, futures put the chance of a Fed rate rise at the 8–9 December meeting at about 78%, NordFX reported. A hot monthly figure would firm up that bet; a soft one would weaken it.
Where it sits in the chain
This is Link 1, inflation, and Link 3, expectations: the data shapes what markets expect the Fed to do, which moves bond yields before the Fed acts.
What to watch
- The monthly change in core prices on 10 November.
- Producer prices on 13 November.
- Fed officials' comments ahead of the December meeting.
- 1Inflation
- 2Central bank
- 3Expected rates
- 4Long-term yields
- 5Real economy
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Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics statements, as reported by StockTitan (October 2026) and US Inflation Calculator (21 November 2025)
- Forecasts: Bloomberg survey of economists (Bloomberg Economics week ahead, 7 November 2026), RBC Economics and the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast; Fed futures (LSEG data via Reuters), as reported by StockTitan; Fed odds after the jobs report, NordFX (6 November 2026)