Few new jobs, but more openings and more quits. What the US job market is saying

What happened

US employers had 7.52 million job openings at the end of September, up 333,000 from August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 3 November. Forecasts had been for about 7.1–7.2 million. Hiring rose to 5.4 million. The number of people quitting their jobs jumped by 321,000 to 3.37 million, while layoffs fell by 127,000 to 1.64 million.

That looks at odds with the main jobs report for September, which showed employers adding just 29,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%.

Why quits matter

People rarely leave a job without another lined up unless they feel confident. That makes quits one of the best signals of workers' bargaining power. Changing employer is also how many people get their largest pay rises, so when quits rise, firms often have to pay more to keep staff. Economists therefore watch the quits rate as an early guide to wage growth.

Openings tell the employer's side: how many positions firms are trying to fill. Rising openings with slow net job growth can mean that firms want to hire but struggle to find the right people, or that people are moving between jobs more than new jobs are being created.

Why it matters for the Fed

The Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75–4% on 28 October, with two officials voting for a rise. Inflation was 3.7% in September. A labour market where workers are confident enough to quit adds to the risk that wages, and then prices, keep rising. That is one reason markets still price a rate rise in December, and why Friday's jobs report is the next test.

Where it sits in the chain

This is Link 5, the real economy, feeding back into Link 2: the job market shapes wages, wages shape inflation, and inflation shapes the central bank's decision.

What to watch

• The October jobs report on 6 November, where about 55,000 new jobs are expected.
• Average hourly earnings in the same report, for signs of faster pay growth.
• Whether openings and quits keep rising in October's survey next month.