The US votes in midterm elections that decide who controls Congress, and two central banks, in Australia and Britain, are expected to raise rates as the oil shock keeps inflation high. In between, the euro area's October inflation figure shows how far apart its economies have drifted.
What’s expected. About 54.7 is expected, after 54.5 in September (consensus reported by Newsquawk). Above 50 means activity is growing.
Why it matters. US factories are still growing strongly while Europe's and China's slow. The prices component shows how much the oil shock is reaching costs.
What’s expected. Markets price a rise of a quarter point to 4.85%, from 4.60%, with odds of roughly 80–90% (Newsquawk, Yardeni Research).
Why it matters. A rise would make Australia one of several central banks responding to oil-driven inflation by raising rates rather than waiting.
What’s expected. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up. Prediction markets give Democrats about a 91–94% chance of winning the House and 65–69% for the Senate (Kalshi, Polymarket).
Why it matters. Congress controls taxes, spending and the debt limit. Split control usually makes big fiscal changes harder, which bond investors watch closely.
What’s expected. Inflation was 3.8% in September. After Italy's jump to 5.6%, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects about 4%.
Why it matters. A rise would strengthen the case for another ECB rate rise in December, even as France's economy shrinks.
What’s expected. A quarter-point rise to 4.00% is widely expected; markets price it as almost certain. The vote split and guidance matter most.
Why it matters. It would be the Bank's first rise since 2023, days after a Budget that left a thin buffer and gilt yields above 5%.
What’s expected. About 55,000 new jobs are expected, after 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2% (consensus reported by Newsquawk).
Why it matters. Hiring has slowed sharply while inflation is 3.7%. The report shapes the odds of a Fed rate rise in December.
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