China's trade surplus passes $1 trillion again, even as imports jump 42%

What happened

China's exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier, slightly more than the 33.5% economists expected, after 36.3% in September, customs data showed on 10 November. Imports rose 41.6%, far more than the 32% forecast and the biggest jump since 2021, according to Bloomberg.

That left a surplus of $105.3 billion for the month, the smallest since May. Over the first ten months it reached just over $1 trillion, about 9% more than in the same period of 2025, when the full-year surplus was a record $1.2 trillion. China sold $33.4 billion more to the European Union than it bought from it in October alone, and more than $310 billion so far this year, Bloomberg calculates.

Why imports jumped

Mostly oil. China imported nearly 42 million tons of crude in October, its most since March, as shipments from the Persian Gulf recovered, led by Iraq. The volume was still 13% lower than a year earlier, but at this year's prices the bill reached a four-year high. Imports of refined fuels also rose. Outside oil and a few products such as gold, Bloomberg reports little sign of stronger demand from Chinese households, which matches the weak consumer prices reported on 9 November (our story).

This is how an oil shock shows up in trade data: an importer pays more for the same barrels, and its surplus shrinks without anything changing in the rest of the economy.

What drives the exports

The surge in global spending on artificial intelligence. Exports of high-tech goods rose 67% on the year in October, the fastest since early 2021, and sales of chips and computers grew at triple-digit rates. Chips and computer parts alone account for 40% of the increase in the value of China's exports this year, partly because their prices have soared. Goldman Sachs economists note that much of this trade is assembly: China imports components and re-exports them, which adds less to the surplus than the headline figures suggest. Solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries and industrial robots also grew strongly in volume.

Why it matters

In the GDP sum, net exports add to growth (see our growth mechanic). With households spending cautiously, China relies on that contribution, and on foreign demand for AI hardware in particular. The surplus also keeps trade tensions high: European leaders are preparing measures to protect the EU market, while Chinese officials argue they would import more if other countries did not restrict sales of some high-tech goods to China.

Where it sits in the chain

This is Link 3, currencies and trade, feeding into Link 5, growth: an economy that depends on selling abroad gains from a global investment boom, and is exposed if it slows.

What to watch

• China's retail sales and industrial output for October, due in mid-November.
• EU measures on Chinese imports.
• Signs of a slowdown in US data-centre spending, after last week's sell-off in AI-related shares.