China's two factory surveys disagree. What each one is measuring

What happened

The RatingDog manufacturing purchasing managers' index, compiled by S&P Global, was 52.0 in October, barely changed from 52.1 in September and above the 51.6 economists polled by Reuters had expected. A reading above 50 means more firms report growth than decline. Output rose at its fastest pace in six months, but growth in export orders slowed to a three-month low.

The private survey came two days after the official one from the National Bureau of Statistics, which fell to 49.3, signalling contraction.

Why two surveys can tell different stories

Both indices ask purchasing managers the same kind of questions, about output, orders, staff and prices. The difference is who answers. The official survey covers about 3,000 companies and leans towards large firms, many of them state-owned and focused on China's home market. The private survey is smaller and includes more small and medium-sized firms, many of them exporters in coastal provinces. When they diverge, it often means big domestic firms and smaller exporters are having different months.

That is why economists look at both, and at harder data such as industrial output and trade, before drawing conclusions.

What both surveys agree on: prices

The private survey's price questions carried the clearest message. Factory-gate prices fell in October after rising in September, as competition pushed firms to cut prices, and export prices fell for the first time since November 2025. Business confidence stayed positive but dropped to a nine-month low. When firms cut prices to win orders even while costs such as oil are high, it points to weak demand, the same reason China's consumer inflation is only 0.9%.

Where it sits in the chain

This is Link 5, the real economy. Falling export prices also matter abroad: they help hold down goods prices for China's trading partners, but add to trade tensions.

What to watch

• China's trade figures and October inflation in the coming days.
• The private services survey, due later this week.
• Any new support measures from Beijing.